Saturday, January 3, 2015

Portfolio allocation for 1Q15

Agora came out with their Focus list for 1Q15. I ran it through the Google drive / Excel / Matlab process described in the 30Dec14 blog entitled "Modern Portfolio Theory and the Regular Guy's portfolio."

They recommended 11 stocks again. Here are the weights I came up with:

Ticker    weight    name
SPX      16.82%    standard & Poor
fnma      0.00%    Fannie Mae
fmcc     14.04%    Freddie Mac
aveo     14.99%    AVEO Pharmaceutic
cry       5.56%    CryoLife, Inc. Co
kite      8.09%    Kite Pharma, Inc.
swir      3.53%    Sierra Wireless
atml      6.10%    Atmel Corporation
infn      5.38%    Infinera Corporat
atnm     10.58%    Actinium Pharmace
gsvc      8.04%    GSV Capital Corp
ozm       6.89%    Och-Ziff Capital


Because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have a correlation of .98, it chose Freddie and disregarded Fannie. One is a proxy for the other, and there is no need to have both. (Note that a correlation of 1.0 means that you're getting the same thing twice; they are perfectly correlated.)

As I did before, I'll probably drop the S&P index and spread the weight among the others.

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