Whoo hoo! Replaced a dying hard drive

I have a Toshiba Satellite. It took longer and longer to boot, and I started getting ominous messages about not finding a hard drive. 

Part of my monthly maintenance is to use Paragon Backup and Recovery 12 Compact. I back it up to our home file server over the network. When the laptop finally did boot, I saved my financial files and some of my current school project; then I proceeded to do a full backup with Paragon. 

The time to finish the backup stayed around five hours, no matter how many hours of wall time passed. It was simply not moving forward. I asked Glary Utilities to do a check disk and boot defrag when it rebooted. Alas, it never rebooted. 

Now I had a 640 Gb 2.5" internal drive that was at death's door. I shopped at Newegg and Amazon and found a 1 TB Hybrid internal drive. The hybrid combines some Solid-State memory for part of its drive and uses a traditional disk for the remainder. The advantage is that the machine sleeps and wakes up quickly, since many of the operating system files reside on the SSD (Solid-State Drive) portion. 

So it wouldn't boot, but could the old drive be read? I placed the old drive and the new drive in a desktop, and then booted the desktop with a Linux-based tool called Clonezilla. 

Clonezilla recognized the old 640 Gb and the new 1 Tb drives. I went through the beginner's prompts to clone the disk; however, the request to perform a check disk on reboot blocked Clonezilla from doing its job. 

I had to drop into Clonezilla's command prompt mode and run a handy linux tool called fsck (file system consistency check). (And yes, the name lends itself to being used as a curse.) 

Then I ran Clonezilla in expert mode, told it to fix sectors as necessary. It cloned the disk in about two hours.

I replaced the drive in the laptop, and while it took a long time to boot the first time, it came up with all files in tact. (I was overjoyed to see it get all the way to my main screen.) I ran Glary utilities again with a hard disk check, and it found a few bad sectors, which it repaired.

Lessons learned

• I will keep doing the monthly backups. 
• I will record the time it takes to back up the drive.
• Lengthening time may indicate impending drive failure
• I need to burn a Paragon recovery CD. 

  

Raspberry Pi summer camp

Josh wanted to go to a programming summer camp, but the Unreal Engine 4 was sold out.

So I wondered if we might get our own programming camp going. Maybe invite a few of his friends who are in the 13- to 15-year-old range. 

Here are some of the things we'll need.

Hardware

You can start with the Raspberry Pi: https://smile.amazon.com/Raspberry-Pi-RASP-PI-3-Model-Motherboard/dp/B01CD5VC92/

The basic computer-on-a-board will set you back about $36. You will have to buy the following to get it going:

• Micro USB power supply (the kind that powers many cell phones; see if you have one lying around the house)
• A Micro SD card (about $12)
• Cat 5 (network) cable, to plug the computer into your LAN at home (about $2)
• HDMI cable, so your computer can display on your big, home TV (about $6)
• OR (this will help you watch Netflix and let your mad scientist work in his room)
• HDMI to VGA adapter (https://www.amazon.com/VicTsing-Gold-Plated-Converter-Adapter-Desktop/dp/B016HL4CAY/, about $10)
• Use a VGA monitor that you have around the house.
• A keyboard and mouse (for example, https://smile.amazon.com/Logitech-Desktop-MK120-Mouse-keyboard/dp/B003NREDC8/, about $15)
• Optional:
• A USB hub and a USB to Micro adapter cable to provide power
• You could also attach your mouse and keyboard here
• A Raspberry Pi case. (Note that 13- to 15-year-olds have the right kind of Legos to build their own Raspberry Pi case.

They also have starter kits that include the Raspberry Pi, a power supply, and a case, such as https://smile.amazon.com/CanaKit-Raspberry-Premium-Supply-Listed/dp/B01C6EQNNK/ ($50). But you still have to  buy the other required items, and you might be happier doing this with your kid. 

Books

Adventures in Raspberry Pi (about $22). This one gets you started with sprite animation in a basic adventure-type game. It also teaches you the Python language, has some basic text-based games, has some Minecraft programming, and ends with a flashing LED. Each child should have his own. 

Raspberry Pi Projects for the Evil Genius (about $17). This one starts with the flashing LED and has projects combined with Python code. Some projects are fairly involved, and require the use of a breadboard to wire together components like motors and lasers. 

What the camp might look like

I'm thinking that we could all buy the Raspberry Pi kit and the Adventures book and work our ways through it. Maybe the first week we could set up one Raspberry Pi at someone's house and then the kids could help each other set up the rest. Everyone would take his computer home. Then we're off to the races.

Second week would be some homework + kid work + dad work as we download software and turn the kids loose on the adventure game. Let's continue working through the chapters of the Adventures book, have the kids go to each other's houses to debug and program, while dad's cheer them on with a beverage in hand. Maybe weekly meetings to show off what everyone has done and get everyone on the same page. 

Fourth or fifth week would be to build the flashing LED project. Then, on to the Evil Genius book, and have the kids pick what would be their favorite project. Each family would order their own parts and breadboard. Then we'd work from the simplest project to the most complex, with a small army of teenagers blazing the trail. 

Thoughts? Questions? 

My dad passed away on Thursday, May 12

George K. Chacko (1930-2016)

My father, Dr. George K. Chacko, passed away last Thursday, May 12, at age 85. He and my mother had been married for 58 years.

He is survived by his wife, Yo; his son, Rajah;  and daughter, Ashia; and six grandchildren: Hannah, Josiah, Rebekah, Sarah, Joshua, and Anya.

My mom, Yo, lives at
Brighton Gardens
6000 Park South Dr
Apartment 325
Charlotte,  North Carolina 28210

Friday, May 20, 2 to 4 pm
Viewing at Poe Funeral services
http://kennethpoeservices.com/
1321 Berkeley Avenue
Charlotte, North Carolina  28204
This looks like a regular house. You can park on the street. 

He will be buried on Saturday at the Cemetery across from church.

Saturday, May 21, 3:00
Memorial service
Providence Presbyterian
10140 Providence Church Lane
Charlotte, NC 28277
704-846-1079

After the service
Fellowship hall
Enjoy some time reminiscing about George

Portfolio Weights for 3Q15

The Agora Focus list for the third quarter has only 8 stocks. That makes my job easier.

Ticker	Name	Recommender	Newsletter	Weight
SPX	Market			16.89%
adap	Adaptimmune Therapeutics	Stephen Petranek	Breakthrough Technology Alert and Technology Profits Confidential	16.73%
al	Air Lease	Chris Mayer	Mayer’s 100x Club and Mayer’s Special Situations	6.79%
cry	CryoLife	Rick Pearson	Agora Financial’s Catalyst Trader	11.28%
exel	Elexlixis	Ray Blanco	Technology Profits Confidential and Agora Financial’s FDA Trader	9.42%
hcn	Health Care REIT	Zach Scheidt	Lifetime Income Report and Income on Demand	9.95%
nbl	Noble Energy	Byron King	Outstanding Investments, Real Wealth Trader and Military-Tech Alert	4.66%
newt	Newtek Business Service	Jonas Elmerraji	Penny Stock Fortunes, STORM Signals	13.32%
wtr	Aqua America	Jim Rickards & Dan Amoss	Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence	10.96%

I didn't sell all stocks when turning over the portfolio. I held onto one, the AIG warrants, for a couple of reasons. First, it seems to have more to run left in it. Also, for tax reasons, it would be nice to go into long-term capital gains. 

I'm not investing the amount in SPX, but instead, distributing it among the remaining (or keeping stocks that I like). 

Here are a few questions that folks have asked me. 

Q: How do I execute the orders?

A: I am mostly trading a Fidelity Market basket. This allows me to trade all the stocks from a single screen. Those are market orders, My IRA is with another company, so I'm trading one stock at a time.
Q: Do you put a stop loss on the stocks?
A: No, I just let them ride for 90 days. In a sense, I have a time stop instead of a price stop.
Q: How does correlation work?
A: Correlation is a statistical function between -1 and +1. When it's close to 1 (e.g., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 1Q15 had a correlation of .98) the two stocks move in tandem. When it's close to -1, they move inversely. When it's close to 0, then the movement of one is almost independent of the second.

Portfolio Performance for 2Q15

Portfolio performance for the quarter ending July 1 was the best ever: 26.3%. (Yes, those are numbers for the quarter, not annualized.)

Symbol	Description	Total Gain/Loss Percent	Recommender	Newsletter	Weight
AAWW	ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS INC COM NEW	23.00%	Jonas Elmerraji	Penny Stock Fortunes, STORM Signals	3.38%
AIGWS	AMERICAN INTL GROUP INC WTS EXP 01/19/2021	15.41%	Chris Mayer	Capital & Crisis	8.82%
GG	GOLDCORP INC COM NPV ISIN #CA3809564097 SEDOL #2676302	-14.84%	Byron King	Outstanding Investments, Real Wealth Trader and Military-Tech Alert	19.06%
GILD	GILEAD SCIENCES INC	9.03%	Rick Pearson	Agora Financial’s Catalyst Trader	10.20%
ONCE	SPARK THERAPEUTICS INC COM ISIN #US84652J1034 SEDOL #BVGCLQ9	-5.30%	Stephen Petranek	Breakthrough Technology Alert	5.90%
RTN	RAYTHEON CO COM NEW	-10.20%	Byron King	Outstanding Investments, Real Wealth Trader and Military-Tech Alert	8.85%
SGYP	SYNERGY PHARMACEUTICALS DEL COM NEW ISIN #US8716393082 SEDOL	139.25%	Ray Blanco	Technology Profits Confidential	18.05%
WHOSX	WASATCH HOISINGTON US TREASURY	-8.76%	Jim Rickards	Strategic Intelligence	11.23%
BX	Blackstone Group LP		Zach Scheidt	Lifetime Income Report	0.00%

Of the 9 stocks, 4 were down between 5% and 15%. One was up 9%, one was up 15%, one was up 23%, and one was up 139%.

Please don't praise my stock-picking skills. Just a math finance major running the programs. Other, smarter people picked the stocks. I chose the weights using whatever my programs told me to pick. I kinda doubt I'm going to see this performance again.

Portfolio weights for 2Q15

My process remains the same. A whole lotta data massaging.

• Get recommendations from Agora's Focus list.
• Get historical data for the stocks from Google.
• Calculate correlations in Excel.
• Add dividends from Yahoo! Finance.
• Put expected returns and correlations into Matlab.
• Publish the weights here.

Symbol	Name	Recommender	Newsletter	Weight
SPX	Market			14.50%
WHOSX	Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund	Jim Rickards	Strategic Intelligence	11.23%
GG	GoldCorp	Byron King	Outstanding Investments, Real Wealth Trader and Military-Tech Alert	19.06%
RTN	Raytheon	Byron King	Outstanding Investments, Real Wealth Trader and Military-Tech Alert	8.85%
BX	Blackstone Group LP	Zach Scheidt	Lifetime Income Report	0.00%
AIG.WS	AIG Warrants (AIGWS). FAQ at http://www.aig.com/Warrant-FAQ_3171_438029.html	Chris Mayer	Capital & Crisis	8.82%
AAWW	Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings	Jonas Elmerraji	Penny Stock Fortunes, STORM Signals	3.38%
GILD	Gilead Sciences	Rick Pearson	Agora Financial’s Catalyst Trader	10.20%
SGYP	Synergy Pharmaceuticals	Ray Blanco	Technology Profits Confidential	18.05%
ONCE	Spark	Stephen Petranek	Breakthrough Technology Alert	5.92%

I ignore the S&P weight, as I usually have something that I want to keep in the portfolio. 

I'm a little surprised the Blackstone Group got 0% weighting. 

I'll try to get these into a Fidelity basket next week.

Portfolio performance for 1Q15

Let's take a look at how the portfolio did last quarter.

symbol	name	recommender	weight	gain
fnma	Fannie Mae	Chris Mayer	0.00%	0%
fmcc	Freddie Mac	Chris Mayer	14.04%	16.61%
aveo	Aveo Therapeutics	Paul Mampilly	14.99%	69.48%
cry	CryoLife	Rick Pearson	5.56%	-1.73%
kite	Kite Pharma	Stephen Petranek	8.09%	-13.68%
swir	Sierra Wireless	Ray Blanco	3.53%	-0.53%
atml	Atmel	Ray Blanco	6.10%	-0.71%
infn	Infinera	Ray Blanco	5.38%	21.28%
atnm	Actinium Pharma	Ray Blanco	10.58%	-47.24%
gsvc	GSV Capital	Jonas Elmerraji	8.04%	7.61%
ozm	Och-Ziff Cap Management	Zach Scheidt	6.89%	12.70%

Remember than Fannie and Freddie track each other very closely, so there's no need to have both in the portfolio.

Of the 10 stocks, 4 were unchanged, 1 was down 47%, 1 was down 14%, 1 was up 7%, 3 were up in the double digits.

The portfolio underwent an 11.9% gain for the quarter.

Here's a helpful graph.

Portfolio weight vs. gain

The scatter plot shows a positive slope, meaning that the stocks with heavier weights performed better.